Box Office Thread

[Silver Nemesis]

Obviously it's too early to make predictions about the final gross, but I've been keeping an eye on the forums over at Box Office Theory, where they track presales, and so far it's not looking great. The opening weekend presales are currently lower than those of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 at the equivalent time prior to its release. It sounds like they're closer to Black Adam's presales. Of course that could all change. People might just show up on the day. Word of mouth and fan response will be crucial factors. But based on these early presales, it looks like WB might have another underperformer on its hands.

Factors working against it:

•   The Ezra controversy
•   The CGI in the trailers looks pretty bad and the action scenes look bland and cartoonish
•   Intrusive and annoying humour, which is evident in some of the trailers and the screenwriter's previous work
•   Superhero fatigue (the past few DC films have all underperformed)
•   Everyone knows the franchise is getting rebooted, which makes this feel like a leftover from the previous administration

Factors in its favour:

•   Nostalgia for Keaton's return
•   The multiverse element – Keaton and Affleck, two Batmen, in the same movie
•   Final appearances by Affleck and Jeremy Irons in their respective roles
•   It's based on Flashpoint, which is a popular story
•   The cameos

We can use this thread to track box office, and to post our own predictions nearer the release date.

[The Joker]

I wouldn't be all that surprised if "The Flash" opens with lesser box office than GOTG3 due to Guardians already having two previous successful installments, thus a proven track record with, of course, most Marvel films opening pretty well before falling off a cliff (with GOTG3 surprisingly holding better than typical).

DC, on the other hand, doesn't have the luxury of having a reliable core audience to show up for that big opening weekend, and hasn't for quite some time. "Man of Steel", "Batman v Superman", and "Suicide Squad" all opened well above $100 million, with "Wonder Woman" just slightly over that mark. "Justice League" and everything post-JL has been a absolute crap shoot in terms of opening weekend/world wide gross. "Aquaman" opened in around "Black Adam" numbers domestically, but good word-of-mouth, and the overseas market really helped pushed that film into the billion dollar club. However, more often than not, the opening weekend/final box office take for the main line DCEU films tend to be pretty soft in comparison with the majority of Disney's MCU films, or just outright disastrous (hell even "Black Adam"s numbers look downright pleasant compared to say, Gunn's ballyhooed "The Suicide Squad").

I hope the movie does well, due to the fact that I am a unabashed Keaton fanboy, and seeing him back in the bat suit for, at least, one more go, wasn't something I thought we would ever have the opportunity to see. So it's very much something of a 'dream come true'. I also think IF the film does well, Keaton's participation will be viewed as one of, if not THE key factor for the films success. If not, it's unfortunate, but not all that surprising. There's been a pattern with DCEU films for far too long now.

[thecolorsblend]

I won't make specific box office predictions. But I will speculate on a possible scenario. Namely, that The Flash will probably open to modest numbers. Nothing special. But if the movie is as good as the hype would have us believe, then positive word of mouth combined with Keaton's prominent role will give the film some decent legs. If that happens, look for the second weekend dropoff to be fairly shallow.

If your movie opens to $90 million and falls off after that, it won't be pretty. But if it has consecutive weekends that average out $85 million each, that's some good business. Not great. But good.

To be totally honest, I haven't wanted to be a buzzkill in the other threads. But personally, I just can't imagine wide audiences accepting this film. Between observable superhero fatigue and Miller's negative public profile, I don't think this movie will make a big splash.

Prove me wrong, DC Studios. Prove me wrong.

[Silver Nemesis]

According to The Hollywood Reporter, The Flash is tracking for a "soft" $70 million opening weekend at the domestic box office: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-flash-box-office-headwinds-elemental-1235501230/

It won't bomb as badly as Shazam 2 – which grossed a feeble $133 million worldwide on an estimated budget of $110-125 million – but it's looking more and more likely that The Flash will fare poorly at the box office. Given that its production budget is around $200-220 million, I estimate its breakeven point to be at least $650-$750 million. The way it's currently tracking, it faces a difficult uphill climb to reach that goal.

It's early days though. This could all change. But it's going to need phenomenal legs and small weekly drops, and that will depend on positive word of mouth from audiences.

But based on current data, it looks like The Flash could be about to join the growing list of WB/DCEU bombs.

[Silver Nemesis]

The Flash review embargo ends tomorrow at 3pm EST. It'll be interesting to see how the RT and Metacritic scores impact presales.

[eledoremassis02]

Hoping word of mouth will help but there is the miller thing, so I understand why some don't want to see or support it.

[Silver Nemesis]

The earliest reviews are in. Right now it's sitting at 69% 'fresh' on RT with 16 reviews and an average rating of 6.90/10.

It's Top Critic score is 50% 'rotten' with an average rating of 6.60/10.

No Metascore yet.

EDIT

The Metascore's sitting at 55, indicating 'mixed or average'. So far it has 14 reviews – 6 positive, 8 mixed.

Early days yet, but this is not the start the studio was hoping for.

[Travesty]

That's...not good.

[thecolorsblend]

Well, for those searching for a bright side, Justice League's status as the biggest DC live action clusterfvck is not long for this world.

[The Dark Knight]

Good but not the best movie ever made as per the hype machine seems to be the consensus. It's 72% on RT at the moment. Keaton's other two Batman appearances (B89/BR) sit at 74% and 81% respectively, so it'll be interesting to see how we feel about the scoring. I'm seeing it in five days, so I don't have much longer to wait.