Suicide Squad Box Office Thread

[Silver Nemesis]

As the title implies, this thread is for news updates, analysis and discussion of the film's box office performance. Any info regarding revenue from merchandise, promotional tie-ins or ancillary markets (VOD/Blu-ray/DVD sales, etc) is also welcome here.

It'll be a few more days before we get the CinemaScore and other clear indicators of audience reaction, but based on the latest critic scores, social media and message board buzz, I think I'm ready to make an early box office forecast right now. Basically, I think it's going to be a smaller scale version Batman v Superman: a frontloaded release with a low multiplier that ultimately underperforms. It'll open huge thanks to presales and fan hype, possibly even breaking records for an August release. But the criticisms I'm hearing, combined with general audience burnout after BvS and the impending start of the Rio Olympics, makes me think this won't find traction with the average cinemagoer. I'm expecting steep drops in the second week and weak legs overall.

I may amend this prediction subject to audience response, but for now I'm going to say it'll finish somewhere in the region of $550-600 million WW. It should break even, but I don't see it making a large profit while it's in theatres. Ultimately I think it'll be the third financial disappointment in a row for the DCEU. But if it gets a CinemaScore of A and positive WOM, it might do better.

Does anyone else fancy making a prediction before the opening weekend?

[Silver Nemesis]

Some very bad news on the box office front.

Firstly, numerous outlets are reporting the film's breakeven point as $800 million: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2016/08/04/suicide-squad-how-much-does-the-dc-movie-need-to-make-to-be-a-success

If this is accurate, then the movie's production and marketing costs must have been much bigger than we initially thought.

Secondly, it's looking more and more likely it won't get released in China: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/suicide-squad-get-china-release-917206

There's now a very real possibility this could end up being a flop.

[The Dark Knight]

I think it will be, and frankly, it deserves to be.

[Silver Nemesis]

Forbes contributor Mark Hughes has said the breakeven point is around the $600-650 million mark, which is more or less what I originally estimated:

No, that's a mistaken figure. Break-even is in the $600-650M range.

https://twitter.com/markhughesfilms/status/761312239009738752

But my estimate was based on the $175 million production cost + $100-150 million marketing. The $800 million breakeven point would be roughly correct if the production budget was $250 million, as some outlets claimed. So which is it?

The $250 million figure seems to have been first mentioned during actor Ike Barinholtz's appearance on The Howard Stern Show last December: http://batman-news.com/2015/12/09/ike-barinholtz-suicide-squad-howard-stern/

The claim made by The Hollywood Reporter's inside source – that the film needs $750-800 million to break even – would apparently gel with Barinholtz's number: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/suicide-squads-secret-drama-rushed-916693

The source of the $175 million figure is harder to trace. But even $600 million WW might be off the cards with China out of the picture.

[The Joker]

Jeez. I really don't see how SS cost $250 million after having seen it. BvS? Sure. I can see that. SS? Not so much, but if so, it is what it is. I would like to see the film turn a profit, but with China out, that's going to be a uphill battle for sure. On the plus side, the only competition SS has next week is Sausage Party. We'll just have to wait and see how much of a drop off next weekend brings.

[Silver Nemesis]

Strong opening figures place it on track for a $140 million opening weekend, which would shatter records for an August release. It should also be the third biggest domestic opening weekend of 2016.

CinemaScore is 'B', which is the same as Batman v Superman. It'll be interesting to see how it holds next week with Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party getting released, but I think we're in for a steep drop.

[The Dark Knight]

Probably. I didn't enjoy the movie as much as I should have. But I do hope it makes a profit for the sake of the ongoing franchise.

[johnnygobbs]

Strong opening figures place it on track for a $140 million opening weekend, which would shatter records for an August release. It should also be the third biggest domestic opening weekend of 2016.

CinemaScore is 'B', which is the same as Batman v Superman. It'll be interesting to see how it holds next week with Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party getting released, but I think we're in for a steep drop.

Do you really think Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party represent much competition?  The former in particular is going to appeal to an entirely different demographic (i.e. the family audience) and even if Sausage Party is getting good reviews, it seems to have rather niche appeal.

[johnnygobbs]

Probably. I didn't enjoy the movie as much as I should have. But I do hope it makes a profit for the sake of the ongoing franchise.

It seems to me like it's time for WB to consider a reboot.

If Spider-Man can be rebooted twice, and the first time was after Spider-Man 3 became the biggest domestic BO hit of 2007, I don't see why the Justice League can't be.

[Silver Nemesis]

Do you really think Pete's Dragon and Sausage Party represent much competition?  The former in particular is going to appeal to an entirely different demographic (i.e. the family audience) and even if Sausage Party is getting good reviews, it seems to have rather niche appeal.

It's hard to say. In this day and age, blockbuster movies need the family audience to reach the big numbers. There are exceptions, like Deadpool, but they're few and far between. Just look at the weekend figures for April 15-17 of this year: Jungle Book opened to over $103 million, while BvS experienced a 61.4% drop and was knocked down to fourth place in the charts. I'm not saying Pete's Dragon with have an equally big impact on SS, but it could take a damagingly large slice of the box office.

As for Sausage Party, that's less likely to have a major impact. But it could also still cut into the box office, particularly in overseas territories where SS is being marketed to an older audience. In the UK, for example, SS is rated 15. Sausage Party is also rated 15. Neither of these films is going to appeal to the family demographic, but both could potentially snare the adult market. We'll have to wait and see.

SS should still hold the top spot next weekend. Even if it drops 60%, that would still rake in about $56 million. Analysts are presently forecasting a $30-35 million opening weekend for Pete's Dragon. So SS would still come out on top.